Throwing some wood on the hot stove to heat things up (Part II)

13 11 2006

Throwing some wood on the hot stove to heat things up (Part II)
Cardinals offseason plan hinges on pitching, extra bat

by SC

After all the typing in Part I, its time to put together what this writer thinks the 2007 Cardinals roster should look like.

Given published reports of a payroll of $100 million for next season, it appears that theyll have roughly $20 million to spend (the team wouldve had $28 million in spending money had they bought Edmonds out of his $3 million option; instead, he will receive $8 million and that number is now subtracted from the $28 milliondont you just love math?).

For review, here are the salaries of players under control and will likely return to the Cardinals next season in this writers opine (all salary information is provided by mlbcontracts.blogspot.com; also, players whom are arbitration eligible will be listed with their 2006 salary to keep things simple):

Cardinal players currently under their control

Player Position 2007 Salary (in millions) Deferred
Albert Pujols 1B $ 12MM $ 3MM
Scott Rolen 3B $ 12MM  
Jim Edmonds CF $ 8MM $ 3MM
Jason Isringhausen CL $ 8.75MM  
Chris Carpenter SP $ 7MM  
Juan Encarnacion RF $ 5MM  
Braden Looper RHP $ 3.5MM  
David Eckstein SS $ 4.5MM  
Ricardo Rincon LHP $ 1.45MM  
Yadier Molina C $ .4MM  
Josh Hancock RHP $ .355MM  
Randy Flores LHP $ .35MM  
Aaron Miles IF $ .35MM  
Brad Thompson RHP $ .344MM  
Chris Duncan OF $ .327MM  
John Rodriguez OF $ .327MM  
Skip Schumaker OF $ .327MM  
Tyler Johnson LHP $ .327MM  
Jorge Sosa RHP $ 2.2MM  
Josh Kinney RHP $ .327MM  
Anthony Reyes SP $ .327MM  
Adam Wainwright CL $ .327MM  
  Total $ 66.634MM $ 6MM


Having put that out there, its obvious all those players listed will not be return to the team in 2007. Some will either be moved in a deal, declined arbitration or time will be spent in Memphis.

So, where should the Cardinals plug into their holes for 2007?

Heres how Id like to see things shakeout after the free agent market is finished come mid-February, barring trades (salaries are projected for FAs).

My 2007 Projected Salaries & Roster

Player Position 2007 Salary
Yadier Molina C $ .400 MM
Albert Pujols 1B $ 12 MM
Adam Kennedy 2B $ 4.3 MM*
Scott Rolen 3B $ 12 MM
David Eckstein SS $ 4.5 MM
Luis Gonzalez LF $ 5.5 MM
Jim Edmonds CF $ 8 MM
Juan Encarnacion RF $ 5 MM
Chris Carpenter SP $7 MM
Anthony Reyes SP $ .327 MM
Jeff Weaver SP $ 6.5 MM
Tony Armas, Jr. SP $ 4 MM*
Mark Mulder SP $ 5 MM
Adam Wainright CL $ .327 MM
Randy Flores RP $ .350 MM
Josh Hancock RP $ .355 MM
Josh Kinney RP $ .327 MM
Ricardo Rincon RP $ 1.45 MM
Brad Thompson RP $ .344 MM
Jorge Sosa RP $ 1.75 MM
Braden Looper RP $ 4.5 MM
Jason Isringhausen CL/RP $ 8.75 MM**
Scott Spiezio OF/INF $ 3.25 MM
Aaron Miles INF $ .800 MM
Chris Duncan INF/OF $ .327 MM
Chad Moeller C $ 1.5 MM*
Jose Cruz, Jr. OF $ 2.0 MM
  Projected $ 100.557MM w/ Isringhausen
    $ 98.562MM if 66% Isringhausens deal is covered by insurance


*educated guesses
**salary could be covered by insurance

Those I see the Cardinals adding include Adam Kennedy, Luis Gonzalez, Tony Armas, Jr., Chad Moeller and Jose Cruz, Jr.

I broke down the contract terms as follows for returnees and FA signings

Adam Kennedy 3 year deal ($4.3M in 07; $5.0M in 08; $6.0 club option in 09)
Luis Gonzalez 2 year deal ($5.5M in 07; $6.5M club option in 08)
Jeff Weaver 3 year deal ($6.5M in 07; $6.5M in 08; $8M in 09)
Mark Mulder 2 year deal ($5M in 07 plus incentives that would bump it to $8M; mutual option for $7.5 in 08)
Tony Armas, Jr. 2 year deal ($4M in 07; $4M club option in 08, includes $1.5M buyout)
Aaron Miles 1 year deal ($.800M in 07)
Scott Spiezio 2 year deal ($3.25M in 07; $3.25 in 08)
Chad Moeller 1 year deal ($1.5M in 07)
Jose Cruz, Jr. 1 year deal ($2.0M in 07)

That should pretty much do it. I think it’s a good starting point for discussion.

The Buried Lead


Related : 11.30.06 — The Cardinals’ hot stove yields good results to date

Throwing some wood on the hot stove to heat things up (Part I)

13 11 2006

Throwing some wood to heat things up
Cardinals offseason plan hinges on pitching, extra bat

Part I of II

By SC

After going on a rather improbable post-season run and winning the World Series in five games, the St. Louis Cardinals have quite a few decisions to make heading into the offseason.

Hopefully, Walt Jocketty & Co. have shaken off the cobwebs from their championship and have put together a formidable plan in their attempt at repeating for the teams 11th championship.

Jockettys plan for the Hot Stove League arguably needs little explanation, as they are staring down the barrel of trying to build a rotation around two parts right-handed pitchers Chris Carpenter and phenom Anthony Reyes.

Theyll have to fend off likely suitors for playoff heroes Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver, as well as injured lefty Mark Mulder, who will be coming off shoulder surgery and depending on which side you agree with (Mulders agent, Gregg Clifton thinks Mulder should be good-to-go by spring training; Jocketty seems to think itll likely be June before he picks up a baseball) will pitch next season . Jason Marquis looks like hell be hitting the skids as his performance and clashes with pitching coach Dave Duncan and manager Tony LaRussa will apparently cause his departure from the Gateway City.

The relief corp for the Cardinals looks to be the lone stable element of the pitching staff after a fine post-season. Theyll be returning key righties Josh Kinney, Josh Hancock, Brad Thompson and Braden Looper. The left side of the pen is just as solid with the returns of Tyler Johnson, Randy Flores and a healthy Ricardo Rincon, returning from shoulder surgery that forced him to miss the 2006 campaign.

Adam Wainwrights name was left out intentionally.

Why?

His fate is tied as a closer to Jason Isringhausen. Their names will be tightly tied together throughout the offseason and beyond. Currently. Wainwright, a former starter, will be the closer entering spring training due to Isringhausens hip surgery. Isringhausen had part of his hipbone shaved on September 16 to help ease his delivery. The operation was the second such surgery performed on his hip in the past three years and appears it will force him to miss half the season. The original hip surgery was performed after the team was swept in the 2004 World Series against the Boston Red Sox.

The position player side of things seems less murky. Returning are corner stalwarts Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen; shortstop David Eckstein; catcher Yadier Molina; and centerfielder Jim Edmonds, who re-signed with the ball club prior to hitting the open market. He agreed to a two-year extension totaling $19 million. Edmonds agreed to defer $3 million of his 2007 salary at no interest to boost the clubs efforts in signing players. Its an annual tradition that the Cardinals will have a hole to fill at second base as that team will be looking to either re-sign or replace Ronnie Belliard, who is a free agent.

The corner outfield spots figure to be a bit cloudier than their centerfield teammate. The Cardinals have right fielder Juan Encarnacion signed through 2008, but his status appears to be in question after the player failed to appear at the teams post-season celebratory festivities. The other question with Encarnacion is his injured wrist. According to Post-Dispatch writer Derrick Goolds Birdhouse Blog, hes checking with several doctors to see the severity of the injury and its potential impact for next season.

On the other side of the outfield grass is Chris Duncan, who put up some great offensive numbers in his second half in St. Louis. His .293/.363/.589 digits (coupled with 22 HRs and 43 RBI) suggest that he should strongly be considered to be the starting left or right fielder on April 1, 2007. There are some question marks regarding his fielding abilities and his propensity to swing and miss (69Ks in 280 ABs), but those could be overlooked due to his lack of impact on the team payroll for 2007. Viva El Birdos did an excellent analysis on Duncan in a recent blog post, which can be found here.

Part II will examine the salary breakdown for the 2007 Cardinals and should be up shortly.

The Buried Lead


Related : Throwing some wood on the hot stove to heat things up (Part II)
Related : 11.30.06 — The Cardinals’ hot stove yields good results to date

Welcome!

13 11 2006

Welcome to The Buried Lead, where all the news is fit to blog. I hope all of you enjoy each and every visit to my site. The site is still very much a work in progress, as I work out all the kinks to the ‘programming’ side of things.

Nevertheless, I’m going ahead with some blog postings as a test to get things started.

Again, welcome aboard.

SC


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“With the number one pick in the 2002 Major League Baseball entry draft. . .”

13 11 2006

With the number one pick in the Major League Baseball entry draft. . .
Suggestions for a boring draft

(Author’s note: This article originally appeared in the June 14, 2002 edition (Issue X) of NationalPastimes.net)

Bud Selig struts up to the podium, with his Beatles haircut, and bellows, “With the number one draft choice, the Pittsburgh Pirates select. . . Bryan Bullington, pitcher, Ball State University.”

And with that, the 2002 Major League Baseball (MLB) Entry Draft began before a frenzied audience.

“The Tampa Devil Rays are now on the clock!”

Baseball Fever: Catch it!

Well, it didn’t quite go that way.

They do it by conference call.

No television coverage on ESPN. No bellowing Chris Berman sitting with Peter Gammons dissecting the pick. No Mel Kiper, Jr. to criticize the Pirates for making a horrible choice.

Okay, maybe not Mel Kiper, Jr., but you get the idea.

MLB needs to re-tool its idea for the draft. On draft day, there isn’t the usual hoopla that accompanies other major sports drafts. The National Football League (NFL) was the first one to get it right. Then, the National Basketball Association (NBA) followed, with the National Hockey League (NHL) chiming in shortly thereafter.

MLB has rigid standards for their drafts.

Sure, you can draft high-school seniors and give them a chance to jump straight into pro ball, but you only hold their immediate rights until they go to college in the fall or sign them. All a team can do is throw money at him to try and pry him away from college.

What incentive is that?

Not much, considering MLB has a wonderfully structured minor league system, something the NFL, and to some extent, the NBA, sorely lack. One would think they would have some rule in place for a player to go to college, play for a year and have the player re-evaluate their choice on a yearly basis for two years. Instead, a team has the right to re-sign a player until a week before the following year’s draft (see one David John Drew, aka J.D.)

They don’t, but it would be smart, eh?

For those who don’t know, here’s a quick listing of the generalized rules:

High school players, if they have graduated from high school and have not yet attended college or junior college;

College players, from four-year colleges who have either completed their junior or senior years or are at least 21 years old;

Junior college players, regardless of how many years of school they have completed; and

21-year-old players.

So, without further ado, here are my suggestions for MLB’s Entry Draft (read at your own risk!!)

Step One: Draft lottery

Currently, major league clubs select in reverse order of their league standing at the close of the preceding season. The club with the worst record selects first with the teams alternating selections to form the rotation. The National League selects first in even years.

Well, that’s rather staid. Let’s spice it up a bit like their fellow sports brethren and have a draft lottery.

Here’s how it would work: the teams last in each division (there are six divisions) will get weighted’ ping-pong balls, meaning extra balls in the selection hopper. Obviously, a team with a horrible record and in last place in their division would get more balls. Furthermore, the team with the worst record in baseball (last year, Pittsburgh) would have the most balls in the hopper, thus, having an advantage over their counterparts.

Then, have a nationally televised lottery selection show for the worst ten teams in baseball. Line them up on a dais and have Bud Selig emcee the show telecast from a studio somewhere, have the hopper, the drawing, the whole nine yards.

After the lottery picks are taken, the order of the draft will follow based upon records in their respective leagues. The tiebreaker shall be their interleague record (hey, why not add even more emphasis to those games!).

Step Two: Allow trading of draft picks

In every major sport, the trading of draft picks is commonplace. In hockey, it’s often present in deals. In football, it’s a key to any big deal. Same goes for basketball.

Not so in baseball.

MLB doesn’t allow for a team to deal any of its picks.

Why’s that?

Who knows, but it’s something that needs to change.

Let’s take this year’s number one draft choice holder, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They had the pick of the litter. The Buccos could’ve chosen whatever player they felt like. Too bad, though, they had money constrictions or they might’ve picked a different player. In the draft, the small-market teams (the one’s who usually place in the bottom of the standings, coincidentally) can’t afford to sign some of the players for fear of either a holdout or someone who won’t sign at all, like J.D. Drew did a number of years back.

It’s all about being able to sign the player.

So, let’s help out these small-market teams and allow them to deal their choice and not be stuck with it like an albatross.

Or any team for that matter. It helps out the teams who don’t want to spend the high exorbitant cost of a greedy draft pick or an undesired slot. This would be quite the way to re-build and strategize, eh? Or get a player by throwing in, say, a third rounder for a player that’s a must have for a stretch run.

Step Three: Rookie Salary Cap

Remember the signability issue?

Well, it rears its ugly head again with this touchy issue. There should be a prorated salary standard for their first few years that lead to arbitration with the draft position determining what the ceiling is. That gives the small market or losing teams an even easier means to sign a player that’s hard to ink to the dotted line (which would be any Scott Boras client).

Don’t expect Donald Fehr, Player’s Association chief, to bend over backwards on this issue. It’s his job as head of the union to see to it that players get what they feel they deserve. There’s nothing wrong with that because it’s a free enterprise, but why not shows some financial responsibility and at least address the issue. It worked for the NBA, why couldn’t it work for MLB?

It makes sense for both sides of the aisle to have some financial sanity and keep newly minted pro ballplayer’s salaries reasonable. It gives teams some insurance’ if a trumpeted player doesn’t pan out (see Rick Ankiel). For baseball to get a true number, have an independent arbiter set the salary ceiling for first year players. That way, the finger should not be pointed in the direction of either side. Of course, you would need to get both sides to agree to an arbiter. . .

Step Four: Inclusion of International Players

To even the playing field, allow baseball team’s to draft players that live outside of North America.

Other sports allow for such procedures, why not baseball?

There are a number of issues that may arise by doing this, but those issues could easily be hammered out by discussing it. In the current system, the teams with the deepest scouting departments get to sign the better international players.

The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers make it a high-priority to have numerous scouts in the Dominican Republic and Central America, scouring diamonds in the rough that they can sign without much consequence other then spending money.

Of course, they could run into an age discrepancy’ roadblock and sign a player who is not of signing age. Case in point: the Dodgers signed a promising infielder from Santo Domingo, Puerto Rico who claimed he was 18 years old. Fast-forward some two years and a little snooping later, Beltre turned out to be 16 at the time he signed his contract, a big no-no. The Dodgers were fined and had to forfeit privileges of signing Latin American players for two years.

The whole point: include international players as part of the draft to give all team’s equal chance of getting a blue-chip global prospect. In an ideal world, this would work. Too bad that team’s don’t have the same scouting budgets, but it’s a solid inclusion to spice up the draft.

Step Five: Shorten the Draft

If you hadn’t heard, the baseball has the longest total draft round in any professional sport.

Anyone care to guess?

15? Nope.

25? Try again.

Forget it; the total amount of rounds is 50. And it used to be longer.

Why in the world do we need 50 rounds to select players? In this year’s draft alone, 1,482 players were selected (I’m still waiting for my phone call). To have this many rounds is overkill. I suggest that it would behoove baseball to shorten the draft to say, 20 rounds, unless each major league team agrees to end it earlier. In all honesty, I’d lean towards 15 rounds, but cutting it in half is drastic enough.

One wouldn’t think that a gem could be found so late, but in some instances, it does happen.

Two examples: the Los Angeles Dodgers drafted a young catcher as a favor for then-Dodger manager Tom Lasorda in the 62d round. His name was Mike Piazza, arguably the most prolific offensive player at the catching position ever. In 1971, the St. Louis Cardinals drafted a little known infielder from San Francisco, California in the 42d round. Keith Hernandez went on to win a co-MVP (with Willie Stargell of the Pirates) in 1979 and is arguably the best defensive first baseman of his era.

Step Six: Television

After doing the preceding steps, you can come to some logical conclusion at what’s going to come next.

Television!

Hey, why not? The NFL can broadcast its two-day draft on ESPN and ESPN2, why couldn’t baseball broadcast the first round. Personally, they only need to show the first round. Let’s face it, how many of us knew Jeremy Hermida, the 11th overall selection of the Florida Marlins? Unless you go to Wheeler High School (wherever that is) or Mel Kiper, Jr. of the baseball world, you have no idea who that young man is (If you are reading this Jeremy: no offense).

They round up the folks at a national sports network and put this package together. After all, they did show the Expansion Draft, albeit we knew whom the players were. Seeing the first round at least can build up excitement for a game that sorely needs it.

Most programs have a twelve-step program to make things better. But, in true baseball fashion, they do happen to cut corners, so my suggestion is half the steps to a better draft.

Besides, I did say read at your own risk.


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