The Adam Wainwright Conundrum
by SC

Minor tremors rumbled through Cardinals� fans World Series comfort zone late last week as the team announced that late season closer Adam Wainwright will remain in that role heading into spring training. He is staying as the club�s closer due to the hip injury (and subsequent surgery) to Jason Isringhausen suffered in the dog days of August.

Wainwright more than adequately filled the position of closer down the stretch, posting a September ERA of 2.79 in 9.2 innings. During that period, he owned a six-to-one K/BB ratio (12 strikeouts to two walks) in his ten appearances.
A snapshot of his regular season numbers (and the rest of the piece) are located after the jump.

That�s not exactly what most baseball fans remember, however. They remember a rookie looking like a poised, veteran closer. Let�s take a peek at his solid post-season run (each ’season’ represents each series):

Key: TBF = Total Batters Faced; PIT/IP = Pitches/Inning; RS = Runners Scored
Stats provided by STATS, Inc.

When the Cardinals needed him, Wainwright came up huge. As the above stats show, he appeared in nine of the team�s post season games, pitching 9.2 innings and striking out 15 and only walking two. Not only that, he held hitters to a minscule .194 average and four saves. Pretty good numbers for a starter in spring training, who made the team as a middle reliever in April and eventually became the team�s post season closer in late August, eh?

So what�s the issue then?

The issue is his role on the 2007 Cardinals roster.

Many fans suggest that his role should be a starter, especially since the team faces an uncertain offseason with only two starters locked in for 2007 � RHPs Chris Carpenter and Anthony Reyes, who�ll be entering only his second season in the Cardinals� rotation. Given the current marketplace for starting pitching, it�s easy to see that point of view.

However, if you got a guy who seemingly can close and prevents them from spending off season money on the position (closer), then go with what you got and put the money into the rotation. If the trend from the 2006 post season isn’t a mirage, you’ve got a strong contender for the long-term closer role after Isringhausen�s contract is up; if he doesn’t, well, you know that he�ll likely return to the rotation and a closer would be found elsewhere for 2008, perhaps within the organization as the Cardinals drafted University of Miami closer Chris Perez in 2006. In a worst case scenario, Wainwright could act as a bridge till 2008, much like how Jim Edmonds is acting as a bridge to centerfield prospect Colby Rasmus impending 2009 arrival.

A potential counterpoint to the argument is one Braden Looper.

Last off season, the Cardinals spent $13.5MM over three years on Looper, the shaky former closer of the New York Mets for the prior two seasons. At the time, it was suggested by Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty that he would be the fallback option should Isringhausen get hurt. Once the season meandered to the point where Isringhausen got hurt, Looper displayed the reasons why the Mets didn�t keep him around: inconsistency. This inconsistency led to Wainwright being thrust into the closer role.

One other thing to consider: the list is pretty short for a position that isn�t known to develop young players. Rather, pitchers becoming closers typically doesn’t happen too often. It usually occurs by accident due to the main guy getting hurt and the middle reliever becoming the defacto stop-gap and hoping to evolve into a lights out closer (like Wainwright did). Granted, some teams do draft guys for this specific purpose (Jeff Brantley by San Francisco and Bobby Thigpen by the White Sox immediately come to mind in the 1980s).

It can be a dicey proposition, but player development personnel recently have turned to drafting guys (the aforementioned Perez; Atlanta taking Joey Devine of the University of Georgia; Boston with Craig Hansen of St. John’s; and Oakland selecting Huston Street from the University of Texas, who�s had great success with his rapid rise) that project to pitch in that spot in the majors.

Wainwright should be the closer in 2007 not just for his post season magic, but for his ability to throw three solid pitches to unsuspecting hitters for at least one more season.

Let�s see that twelve-to-six curveball freezing hitters in the ninth again next season.